While the "snowcapped" white helmets are cool, I wish the Broncos had gone with the blue throwbacks. There are so many other teams featuring incredible throwback uniforms this year that this is mediocre in comparison.
Football is back! Thanks to the approximately 3 people who read this.
Every year, I try to predict which teams will make the playoffs. This is my performance thus far:
I stick to a system of picking half repeats, and half new teams in the playoffs due to the average playoff team turnover year to year. Looking back at my previous years, it is typically easier to predict the half that will return than it is the half new teams. I could maybe hedge my bets and give myself a better shot of getting 10 or 11 correct, but I'm going for 14 of 14! (If I ever pick all 14 I will immediately stop doing these and claim victory forever).
It is best practice to pick teams with superstar QBs to make the playoffs. Out of the 8 teams that finished last season with a superstar QB, 7 of those made the playoffs (Aaron Rodgers and the Packers being the exception). After Tom Brady's retirement, that leaves 6 for me to pick as easy inclusions for this year's playoff pool:
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs
Josh Allen and the Bills
Joe Burrow and the Bengals
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars
Justin Herbert and the Chargers
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles
That leaves me with eight teams to choose from for my last returning team:
Ravens
Dolphins
49ers
Vikings
Buccaneers
Cowboys
Giants
Seahawks
I'll go with the 49ers. Even though I don't like simply picking the top seeds from last year's playoffs, I don't see the NFC West being any better to challenge the 49ers from winning the division again.
That leaves me with two left for the AFC:
Jets
Patriots
Steelers
Browns
Colts
Texans
Titans
Broncos
Raiders
I doubt Aaron Rodgers is going to miss the playoffs two years in a row, so I'll go with the Jets as #6, and then for the final team I'm looking at Steelers, Titans, or Broncos... I'll go Steelers.
For a wide-open NFC, I have 9 options to pick 5 new teams from:
Commanders
Bears
Packers
Lions
Falcons
Saints
Panthers
Rams
Cardinals
I need division winners for the North and the South - I'll go Lions and Falcons. Saints are considered a safer pick to win the division albeit boring so I'll throw them in as one of the playoff teams. Despite my emotional need for Justin Fields to be a non-franchise QB because the Broncos passed on him in the draft, I'll include the Bears as well. As I'm looking at the teams for the last one, I think I need to pick the Commanders simply because that would fit in with the regression I'm predicting from the Cowboys/Giants in the division. It is my best practice to never pick the team with the head coach most likely to be fired, but Ron Rivera can thank Josh McDaniels and Todd Bowles for existing.
There it is! My 14 teams:
AFC East - Bills, Jets
AFC North - Bengals, Steelers
AFC South - Jaguars
AFC West - Chiefs, Chargers
NFC East - Eagles, Commanders
NFC North - Lions, Bears
NFC South - Falcons, Saints
NFC West - 49ers
Super Bowl Prediction - I'll go Bengals over Eagles. Basically for this I just look at what non-Chiefs AFC team to pick, and then it's hard to pick against the Eagles because they were so far and away the best team in the NFC last year by a mile and it seems like they only got better in the offseason. Especially with them looking so good in the Super Bowl, it is hard to pick any other team that ended last season on a bad note.
General thoughts on all the teams:
AFC East:
Bills - I still think they are too good to miss the playoffs, but it sure feels like they missed their Super Bowl window. I would love to see them remain in that AFC top tier but I'm worried that they will take a step back this year with yet another early loss in the playoffs.
Jets - I usually never pick the Hard Knocks team to make the playoffs, but the Hard Knocks team doesn't usually add a hall of fame QB to the roster. This Jets team feels different.
Dolphins - In a heavyweight AFC it was hard to find room in the playoffs for the Dolphins. It is best practice to remove the team that made a pleasant surprise appearance in the playoffs the year before.
Patriots - Bill Belichick won't let them be embarrassing, but what talent does this team have?
AFC North:
Bengals - My Super Bowl winner pick, I think they make the most of combining Joe Burrow with three excellent WRs and don't even need their defense to be that good to succeed. They have low-key been my favorite non-Broncos team in the Joe Burrow era.
Steelers - The fact that they did so well during their rebuild year shows the impact a difference-making coach has. I think they will continue their reputation as a franchise that is a threat every year to make the playoffs.
Ravens - It was hard to not include Lamar Jackson in the superstar QB group, but I just haven't seen it since his MVP season. They definitely are the team I'm most worried about messing up my AFC predictions.
Browns - A franchise that has consistently made terrible decisions in my lifetime somehow topped them all with Deshaun Watson. Even worse, they'll probably double down on it by firing their head coach if it doesn't work out this year.
AFC South:
Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence took that step into the superstar QB group last year, and that means I will default pick them to win the AFC South until one of these young QBs in the rest of the division joins him...
Colts - ...could it be Anthony Richardson? Crazy that this guy is larger and faster than Derrick Henry. Excited to watch what he does. Would be nice if the owner didn't actively try to make his own players hate him.
Texans - Or could it be C.J. Stroud? Nice for the Texans to start to build some optimism in their team after arguably being the worst team for the past few years.
Titans - This is the other team in the AFC that I'm most worried about messing up my predictions other than the Ravens. Mike Vrabel is such a good coach but I simply don't see it working out on offense. Trading away A.J. Brown really set this franchise back.
AFC West:
Chiefs - As a fan of a non-Chiefs AFC West team, it hurts to know that we're in the midst of a decade plus dominant run with Mahomes/Reid doing a great impression of the Brady/Belichick Patriots years. The last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs, Barack Obama was president. Hopefully it will happen this year, but do I expect it to? No.
Chargers - I wonder if it hurts more to be the second best team in the division behind the all time great dynasty and to have false hope every year.
Raiders - The answer to my previous question is "no". Having Josh McDaniels as your head coach and being terrible is certainly worse than false hope.
Broncos - I predict their record every year. With Sean Payton coming in as head coach, I think that counts for 2-3 more wins by itself. Throw in at least one more win against the Raiders and that'll bring the record up to 8-9, which accurately represents a mediocre team.
NFC East:
Eagles - They were so good in that Super Bowl, especially Jalen Hurts. With the NFC being a barren wasteland I don't see the scenario where they aren't a top contender again. Even if they don't win the division, they'll certainly be the #1 wild card team.
Cowboys - That defense makes me worry about them the most in messing up my NFC predictions, but if I put them in as one of my 7 returning playoff teams I would be taking the Bills out, which would worry me more. General bad vibes around this team and the loss of Kellen Moore make me not surprised if they have a bad season.
Giants - When picking teams to not return to the playoffs, it is always best to pick those that seemed like they overachieved the year before. See: Dolphins, Vikings.
Commanders - Opposite of the Cowboys, the Commanders are playing with house money this season. Sure, they'll probably fire their coach and even change their name again, but getting out of the dark days of the Snyder ownership is already a win. I see this year resulting in a wild-card appearance where they get dismantled by a superior team but no one gives them any flak for it because they are likable for the first time in years. Also have already provided one of my all time favorite football moments and the season hasn't even started!
NFC North:
Lions - I worry that they are the favorite to win the division and I'm picking them along with everyone else - when has optimism regarding the Lions ever worked?? But they were arguably the best non-playoff team last year and ending the season by kicking the Packers out of the playoffs and Aaron Rodgers out of Green Bay was such a high note to end on.
Bears - They seemed poised to make a jump after bringing in more weapons for Justin Fields and how dangerous he looked last season. With Aaron Rodgers gone, the NFC North is wide open.
Packers - If you aren't making it to the playoffs with Aaron Rodgers, I don't see it happening without him. Sure, Jordan Love could be great, but as of now that is such an unknown and I'll adjust accordingly after if it happens.
Vikings - See Dolphins, Giants regarding an overachieving team from last year having statistical regression. They won so many close games last year and it seems very probably that they regress back to a lower win total and missing out on the playoffs.
NFC South:
Falcons - This is the team I am unnaturally rooting for at the start of the season. I'm so intrigued by a run-first team that should create for fun close games showing something different than the rest of the league. I want it to work out and for them to be a fun watch.
Saints - On the other hand, there isn't a team that seems more bland to me than the Saints. I am so indifferent about them. At least Jamaal Williams is a source of charisma. I'm picking them to make the playoffs, but to me they have the same ceiling as those Andy Dalton Bengals teams back in the day.
Panthers - At least with a team like the Panthers, there is excitement with a young new QB and the start of the next chapter of the Panthers franchise. Hopefully their offensive line isn't as bad as it is projected to be.
Buccaneers - Oof, this is gonna be rough post Tom Brady. At least they got that Super Bowl win and they're bringing back the throwback uniforms.
NFC West:
49ers - For the NFC, I'd put the Eagles alone in the top tier, and currently the 49ers alone in the second tier. Still regret that the Broncos didn't hire Kyle Shanahan. I question Brock Purdy but they'll make it work.
Seahawks - After the Cowboys, the Seahawks are the main team I'm worried about messing up my NFC playoff predictions. But also wouldn't be surprised that Geno Smith falls back down to expectations after a good year last year. Another team with fantastic throwback uniforms that make me jealous. Thursday night football should simply be Throwback Thursday for every team.
Rams - They're going with Aaron Donald and 10 other randos for defense, doesn't seem like that is a successful combination. Wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if they overachieve and are second in the division.
Cardinals - The consensus worst team in the NFL. As of now I don't think they have even decided who their QB will be for week 1. Look away, Cardinals fans.
That's everyone! Good luck to your team this year, God bless!
Jeremy