Hello everyone!
This will be my third year writing an NFL predictions blog post. Looking forward to being wrong again! Thanks for reading and I hope your team doesn't beat my team!
Edit: Jeremy here, the year after I always look back and grade myself on how correct I was. Either I give myself full credit in green, partial credit in yellow, or no credit in red.
The Past Six Years
With this being my third year making predictions, I wanted to go about my picks a different way. After having a conversation at work with a coworker about the importance of observing historical patterns, I decided that I wanted to base my predictions loosely on such research. After doing a quick search and learning that an NFL player's average career length is 6 years (players who make it onto a team's main 53-man roster as a rookie), I decided to look back at the previous 6 years and observe patterns in what teams made/missed the playoffs. Here are the playoff contenders for the past 6 years:
With looking at 6 years of data, I'm looking for trends that are true at least 5 times out of 6, or ~83%. Here are all the things I have observed after looking at that table for a day:
There are an average of ~6 new teams in the playoffs every year
Super Bowl Participants have a first round bye in the playoffs
All divisions are primarily won between two teams:
AFC East - Patriots (all 6)
AFC North - Steelers (3), Bengals (2)
AFC South - Texans (3), Colts (2)
AFC West - Broncos (3), Chiefs (3)
NFC East - Cowboys (3), Eagles (2)
NFC North - Packers (3), Vikings (2)
NFC South - Panthers (3), Saints (2)
NFC West - Seahawks (3), Rams (2)
Patriots will have a 1st round bye
Winner of the AFC West will have a first round bye
Patriots, Seahawks, and Chiefs will make the playoffs
The Cowboys switch between winning the division and missing the playoffs, and it's time for them to miss the playoffs
For some odd reason, the Broncos and the Bengals like making/missing the playoffs together
The Jets, Browns, Buccaneers don't make the playoffs - but 5 of the 6 of these years have a team that is nowhere else on the list - (therefore I should pick one of them to make the playoffs.)
Those were all the ones that jumped out to me. Let me know which ones you see!
Playoff Predictions
With those patterns identified and followed, I have picked the following 12 teams to make the playoffs:
AFC
New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans
Kansas City Chiefs
New York Jets
Jacksonville Jaguars
NFC
Philadelphia Eagles
Minnesota Vikings
Carolina Panthers
Los Angeles Rams
Green Bay Packers
Seattle Seahawks
Analysis
Conference championship trophy is a glorified participation trophy to the Patriots
Patriots
Easiest pick first. Enough has been said about the Patriots and it's impossible not to admire everything they accomplish. This is the second year in a row I have used the above gif, and I'll keep using it until they aren't good anymore. Being an NFL fan, I don't like that one team dominates quite like the Patriots do, but I absolutely love seeing how they do it. And anyone who calls the Patriots cheaters and says that they only win because of that is an idiot.
I predict that because of increased competition in the AFC West, the Patriots will edge out the Chiefs to get the #1 seed in the AFC due to a head to head tiebreaker from the Patriots win in week 14.
^My thoughts on the Browns being the favorite to win the AFC North. The BROWNS???
Steelers
Glad I had the Steelers as an option for one of the six non-repeat playoff participants. Juju is going to take over the role of the WR1, and they will be just fine. They don't have all the distractions of last year, and still have one of the league's best offensive lines. But the main thing I I like about them is their defense, with the addition of Devin Bush who has looked good in the preseason, I think they will be right back to the top of the division, and get the #3 seed in the AFC. Giving myself partial credit here because the principle of this pick was against the grain because EVERYONE was picking the Browns. And besides, they almost made it with Mason Rudolph/Duck Hodges playing QB for them...
I will admit that I'm was initially being a contrarian just for fun and not picking the Browns in this spot, but after some thought and listening to NFL podcasts starring people much smarter than myself, I legitimately think the Steelers are going to win the division.
I'm here for whatever craziness this guy brings to the league
Texans
This is a very last minute pick based on the craziness that has transpired over the last couple days (I'm writing this on Sunday, September 1st, 2019). I really wanted to pick the Colts even after Andrew Luck retired so I could have a gif of Frank Reich and his amazing beard, but even though Bill O'Brien has been making absolutely crazy trades the past few days, they'll win the division. They mortgaged away their future by trading for gas-mask aficionado Laramey Tunsil, which won't look good in the long run after they lose in the divisional round to either the Patriots or the Chiefs and then have no 1st round picks - but in the meantime, having a good left tackle will allow Deshaun Watson to continue to be amazing, and they'll win a playoff game in the wild card round again after making it into the playoffs as the AFC's #4 seed. Nailed it.
The NFL is better for having Bill O'Brien have complete control over an NFL team. In the span of one weekend, he went from being a somewhat successful coach of a boring franchise to one of the most interesting characters in the league. He's going for broke in 2019 and it's gonna be fun to watch.
For sake of the Broncos, I really hope this guy gets worse...
Chiefs
I hate this. I don't want to spend time on this other than saying that yes Patrick Mahomes was amazing in his first year starting, and I really hope that teams start to figure him out, otherwise it's gonna get pretty rough being a Broncos fan and having to go against that every year in the division. Main reason I'm picking them is because they added defensive pieces in the offseason, and were lucky enough that Tyreek Hill didn't get suspended. #2 seed in the AFC, lower seed due to splitting wins with both the Broncos and Chargers, and losing the head-to-head to the Patriots.
^How I imagine most people will respond to this pick. Also, Sam Darnold is the frattiest looking guy in the league.
Jets
I imagine that this is the most controversial pick on my list, and I could easily be wrong, but it seems like this will be a good year for the Jets. They now have Le'Veon Bell, and if Sam Darnold is as good as people were saying he was going to be, then he should have a great sophomore year. People don't seem to remember that this guy was getting as much praise as Andrew Luck did coming into the league, with an entire year of the hashtag #ScamForSam being the news the year before he joined the NFL. If you couldn't tell from the two Patriots videos above, I absolutely love watching videos that break down how defenses play football, and so this video of the Jets' star safety Jamal Adams is enough to make me root for him. #6 seed in the AFC. Yikes, I'm going to stop picking Adam Gase coached teams to make the playoffs from now on.
New uniforms look good, too. One thing the Jets have going for them.
Jaguars fans reacting to making the playoffs
Jaguars
Even though I completely blew it picking the Jags to make it to the Super Bowl last year, I don't think their 2017 defense was a fluke, and I think they can make it back to the playoffs again with consistent offensive play from Nick Foles and Leonard Fournette. An offense in the hands of a QB who doesn't turn the ball over a lot will help the defense a lot because it allows them to rest and not have to carry the team on their shoulders. So therefore I think that the Jaguars will have an unimpressive but consistent season and make it into the playoffs as the #5 seed in the AFC. No comment here, probably even a worse prediction than the Jets.
Prince Harry would be happy with an Eagles playoff appearance
Eagles
This team is stacked. They were really close to beating the powerhouse Saints in the playoffs last year, and only seemed to get better in the offseason - working on their running back committee and welcoming DeSean Jackson back to Philly. With how good the Eagles are on both the offensive and defensive line, I see a deep playoff run in store for this team. Now that Carson Wentz is fully back from injury, I think that he could be back in contention for MVP. #1 seed in the NFC. While they did make it to the playoffs, I'm only giving myself partial credit for this one because they barely made it in and injuries plagued them again this year.
Most incredible play I've watched live
Vikings
I expect this offense to be fantastic. They dealt with a lot of weird offensive coaching drama last year, but Kirk Cousins quietly had one of his best statistical years, and they have other great pieces on offense: Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and their best offensive player by year's end - Stefon Diggs. With their strong defense, I see them winning the division and nabbing the NFC's #3 seed. Not a lot of other people were picking the Vikings, so I'm glad I got that right. But not a lot to brag about in regards to this pick.
Even though I think very highly of the Panthers, I can't not use this gif.
Panthers
Some probably think I should use this space to defend myself for not picking the Saints to win the division, or even make the playoffs, but I'd rather focus on the fact that the Panthers were 6-2 last year before Cam Newton's shoulder injury. Cam Newton will finish as a top-5 QB, he is that good. Christian McCaffrey is incredible, and the WRs are expected to be even better. With a solid defense, I don't see why the Panthers can't have some of the success they had in 2015 with Cam Newton carrying that team. Add in the Falcon's getting better and providing some competition for the Saints, and I see the Panthers as the #4 seed in the NFC.
Being a North Carolina native, I'm starting to enjoy having the Panthers as a team to root for. Even though I will always prefer my team that is capable of winning the Super Bowl, I'm starting to see the Panthers become my #2 team.
As for my lack of faith in the Saints? Have they really done anything to deserve it? No, but a good team disappoints every year, why not them? Although I picked the wrong "good team" to miss (it was actually the 2018 NFC Champ Rams, see below), I'm going to continue to pick one team like this every year.
Representing the millennial generation well.
Rams
The Rams with Sean McVay are going to be a powerhouse for years to come. But again, the great offense overshadows one of the best defensive coordinators of all time and the strong defense. Todd Gurley's arthritic knees are a huge factor, but I still see the team overcoming any potential issues with the strength of the rest of their roster. Repeat #2 seed in the NFC. See my thoughts on the Saints above, every year consensus good team misses the playoffs, and in 2019 it was the Rams after making it to the Super Bowl the year prior.
I highly suggest that you watch the first 1:15 of this Super Bowl video. Shows a great dichotomy between the wide-eyed contagious positive nature of Sean McVay as well as the incredible focus and competitive nature of Bill Belichick. Love it.
A-A-Ron can knock you down with a slight shove.
Packers
As long as I stick to the rule "pick at least 6 new playoff teams", I will always pick Aaron Rodgers when I have the chance. The Packers should have a more balanced offense, and they did a lot of work to hopefully improve their defense as well. See the below text thread I had with my brother last year:
Aaron Rodgers does things that no QB has ever been able to do. But even though their roster is weaker than others in the NFC, I see them making the playoffs as the #5 seed. Packers ended up getting the #2 seed actually but my logic here is sound.
This gif almost convinced me to pick the Seahawk to win the NFC West over the Rams.
Seahawks
The thing that has convinced me the most to pick the Seahawks is the fact that nobody else is. Russell Wilson is one of the best QBs in the game, and they have a fantastic coach who always keeps them in the mix. I was enjoying being one of the only ones to be favoring them, but I think more people have joined me now that they have traded for Jadeveon Clowney. They will be solid all around, and will squeak into the playoffs with the NFC's #6 seed. I give myself a lot of credit for this one. Before the Jadaveon Clowney trade, hardly anyone was picking the Seahawks. I think every once in awhile people just get bored of seeing the same teams in the playoffs and add wish fulfillment into their predictions instead of recognizing that those teams make it back for a reason.
My preemptive personal apology to Chris Carson. In my main fantasy football league, I have a curse of ruining the season for whichever RBs I draft in the first four rounds. He is joining the club of the following players:
2014 Adrian Peterson - (Drafted 1.01) Played one game, got suspended for the rest of the year
2017 David Johnson - (1.01) Broke wrist in first game, missed rest of the season
2017 Jay Ajayi - (3.01) Only scored 1 touchdown*
2018 Le'Veon Bell - (1.02) Held out for contract reasons, didn't play a single snap
2018 Devonta Freeman - (2.09) Got injured in first game, came back later in the season and was injured immediately
2018 Jerick McKinnon - (3.02) Tore ACL in practice less than 24 hours after our fantasy football draft, and is starting the 2019 season on IR. Poor guy.
Note: I did not play fantasy football in 2015 or 2016, so I'm 3 for 3 right now in ruining whatever RB I draft first. I purposefully went WR-WR in this years fantasy draft to hopefully minimize RB injury. But drafting Devonta Freeman at the 3.06 and Chris Carson at 4.05 does not bode well for either of them...
* = 2017 Jay Ajayi is the only one on that list to play more than 1 full game (Freeman played 1.5 games), but he nonetheless had a disappointing season that year, being traded to another team halfway through the season, and finishing as the RB33 in standard scoring. His only touchdown was against my Denver Broncos, adding insult to injury. I drafted him with the 21st overall pick.
Denver Broncos Predictions
Unfortunately I do not think the Broncos will have a playoff appearance this year. The AFC West is such a loaded division with the Chiefs and Chargers, and so I struggle to see the Broncos getting to 10 wins. But I'm very excited for the first year with head coach Vic Fangio, who has been reported to be one of the sharpest defensive minds in the league up there with Bill Belichick and Wade Phillips. Sometimes coordinators struggle to switch over from coordinator to head coach, so I am keeping my expectations in check, but I'd be lying if I said I weren't excited for the coaching changes and the direction that the Broncos are headed. We've struggled on the offensive line for awhile now, and bringing in Mike Munchak is a big deal - thanks, Steelers!
Am I exited about Joe Flacco? Not really. Can he be good enough to keep us in playoff contention? Yeah. But with the Chiefs and Chargers in the division, we're gonna have to do a lot more than what I think this year's team is capable of on offense. I predict 8-8, with some playoff hopes going into the last week of the season. Finished 7-9, so not too sad with that pick.
Von Miller and Bradley Chubb will have the highest sack count between two teammates.
Also:
Super Bowl Pick
As I looked back over the past 6 years to identify trends, one thing I noticed was a pattern of stellar defense or defensive plays winning the Super Bowls. I'd argue that the key plays of at least 5 of those Super Bowls were made on defense:
48 - Seahawks completely dominated the Broncos on defense
49 - Malcolm Butler's goal-line interception
50 - Broncos defense won the Super Bowl vs. the Panthers
51 - Patriots over Falcons was mostly offense, but Patriots defense stopped the Falcons from scoring after it was 28-3
52 - Brandon Graham's forced fumble and first sack of the game
53 - Jason McCourty's pass breakup, or Stephon Gilmore's interception
And sure, plenty of offense happened in a lot of those games, but I'd argue that the team with the best defense won most of those games (49 being the exception, but the Patriots ultimately played better defense than the Seahawks). Therefore I would typically favor teams with the better defense in the playoffs.
But I noticed something different this past season - the teams with the best defenses weren't always winning. The Bears and Ravens got knocked out in the wild card round. The Chiefs had one of the worst defenses in the league, and were potentially a coin-toss away from the Super Bowl. This new age of high-flying offenses (the 2013 Broncos were ahead of their time) has brought a shift to the NFL. And even though I think defense will prevail in the end, I'm going to pick two offense-first teams to make it to the Super Bowl 54, or SBLIV.
Haha, "SBLIV", that sounds funny.
Philadelphia Eagles over Kansas City Chiefs in the Andy Reid bowl.
I despise picking the Chiefs, but I think it's important to push my emotions aside when making predictions. The worst possible scenario came true when the Chiefs won the Super Bowl. Ugh. Oh well at least I got my prediction right for the AFC representative.
What are your thoughts? Please comment on the Facebook post with your Super Bowl prediction, and text me what you think of my fantasy football team. Our league's draft can be found here.
Here's to another great season with hopefully as few injuries as possible. Go Broncos!
God bless!
@David A, Alaina:
