Hello everyone!
Hello everyone! 2021 Jeremy here, I am reviewing my picks. I'll color code everything accordingly, based on if I got it correct, partially correct, or incorrect.
This will be my fourth year writing an NFL predictions blog post. Looking forward to being wrong again! Here are my scores for previous years (one point per playoff team correctly predicted):
I'm trending in the right direction! This year will be scored out of 14, so we'll see what happens. Thanks for reading!
Philosophy for 2020
In my previous predictions, I have noted how there are on average six teams that make the playoffs that did not make it the year prior. Due to Covid-19, everything that I'm hearing from former players on podcasts, etc. is that these veteran teams who don't have a lot of new players are going to have a huge leg up on this season. Therefore teams who can pick up where they left off last year are going to get a bump up in my opinion - I'm going to pick 8 of last year's 12 playoff contenders to make it this year. That's a 57% return rate (8 of 14) rather than the 50% (6 of 12). So I should have gone with the 50% rate again. 7 of last year's playoff participants returned this year.
Also, it seems that one team hugely disappoints from the year before. Last year I expected it to be the Saints, it ended up being the Rams. I will do the same and pick one team to miss that really doesn't have any rationale behind it, other than it happens every year to someone.
With all that said, I usually lay out all my predictions and then present it by division/team. This year to make it a little different. I'm just going to have this blog post flow exactly how I'm thinking about my picks as I go. I'll put the end results immediately below but to see how I got there as well as my Super Bowl pick, keep reading. I usually include fun gifs or pictures with my picks, but this year I'm rating the aesthetic of the team's stadiums. Enjoy!
Steelers
Ravens
Patriots
Bills
Colts
Texans
Chiefs
Packers
Cowboys
Buccaneers
Saints
Panthers
Rams
Seahawks
So the first thing I think about with making these predictions is that I have to pick six teams to make the playoffs that did not last year. Who are the easy ones to pick out of that? Right off the top of my head a few teams come to my attention based on expectation from last year: Steelers, Rams, Cowboys, Colts.
Recently visited Pittsburgh and was blown away at how beautiful the city is. Heinz Field plus the rest of that Pittsburgh view gets an A+
Steelers almost made it to the playoffs with Big Ben injured for the entire season. Their defense was one of the best in this past decade, and so in my mind they are the easiest pick of the "new teams" to make it to the playoffs. Pretty spot on with this one. Their defense was fantastic throughout the season, and even though they had some injuries and fell off towards the end of the season, they were one of the strongest teams throughout.
I couldn't find a non-construction photo of the new LA stadium, but the concept art looks as good as the uniforms of the other LA team, therefore they get a B-
Rams were the #7 team in the NFC last year. They are in a tough division but I think it's a pretty easy pick to have them make it back. Sean McVay is still a great coach even after one under-performing year, so they'll make it back. Their new uniforms - meh. I was correct on the Rams returning, but incorrect on their uniforms. They looked MUCH better actually on the field.
Cowboys have one of the ugliest stadiums. I guess in Dallas it's just a big thing to keep you out of the heat, but still. Yuck. D-
Cowboys were a pick I was going to make regardless. They make the playoffs every other year so this year they are back in. They have a talented roster as well so in a weak NFC East I am confidently picking them to win the division. I wouldn't be surprised if they were in the mix for that #1 seed and the bye, but I still expect them to have a disappointing performance in the playoffs as I laugh at Jay and Mikey. Like every team in this terrible division, they almost made it. Do I think Dak not getting injured would have been enough to have them win? Maybe, but who cares. Cowboys suck.
The stadium goes along with the industrial feel of Indianapolis. Kinda cool, solid B
Colts lost their QB to a bizarre preseason retirement last year. They have a deep roster and so it is easy to pick them to make it into the playoffs this year. Offensive lines are not the most fun things to root for but the Colts have the best one. New uniforms barely made any changes to the old ones, which was a smart move. Correct again here, I figured with the expansion of the playoffs to 14 teams that a team like the Colts with a deep roster would make it. I don't have any confidence that they will do anything significant in the playoffs, but I expect a solid but boring team like the Colts will now be in the playoffs every year.
All four of the above teams under performed their expectation from last year so I expect them to bounce back. Notice I did not pick the Browns even though they had huge expectations last year. My philosophy on the Browns (and now also the Jets) is to never pick them to make the playoffs until they show otherwise that they can do so. Good job Browns, you finally did it!
Therefore, I need two more teams that didn't make it to the playoffs last year.
Bleh. The pirate ship is a little corny, but they get the plus for the effort. Those ramps at the corners are ugly, and Tampa Bay games are always bathed in way too much sunlight. D+
New team number five is easy. I'll take the Buccaneers. Although I don't expect Tom Brady to be amazing like everyone is assuming, I think that he is certainly enough to take this team to the playoffs now that there are seven teams from each conference to make it. Might be rough at first, but also the Buccaneers have a very solid defense. So why not? Like last year not picking the Browns when they got all the offseason hype, I want to avoid picking the Bucs here, but without Jameis Winston throwing 30 interceptions anymore, they should be a playoff contending team. I couldn't get any more spot on here. While I'm happy that I had my best percentage correct guesses this year, I'm more proud of how accurate my descriptions were of what actually ended up happening in the season. I've got the quantity AND the quality this year :)
That gives me 5 of 6 new playoff teams. The last one is going to be a dart throw - there is always a team that nobody expects to be good that does well (see 2017 Super Bowl winning Eagles, 2018 Bears, and 2019 NFC Champion 49ers). I'm going to make that pick once I've figured my others out and know what conference I'll have to pick from.
Of the twelve teams that made the playoffs last year, I have to select 8 to return. The easiest to pick are Chiefs, Ravens, and Saints. Giving myself only partial credit for the Ravens because it was pretty dicey for awhile. Although they ended the season fantastic, much of the year they did not look like last year's team which was one of the best regular season teams of all time.
Decent stadium that gets demoted to average for it's proximity to the sport of baseball. I'll give it a C
The Chiefs unfortunately should have no issue winning the AFC West again this year. The second and third best players in the division (Von Miller and Derwin James, respectively), are both out for the season which should allow Patrick Mahomes to do his thing again. I hate it but it's foolish to think otherwise. Too easy, but unfortunately correct.
I'm giving extra points to these AFC North stadiums that I have driven by recently at night. Before they lost to the Titans last year, I drove by the day before on that highway that curves around the stadium and saw the purple lights and everything and it was pretty cool. But it is still pretty basic. B-
Ravens beefed up their defense in the offseason, so I think they should be right back in it again. The 2019 Ravens were one of the all time greatest regular season teams, and might end up being my pick for the Super Bowl. I don't think they'll get to 14 wins again but I imagine they will have at least 12. Only partial credit because they didn't get to 12, but I was correct that they'd drop down from the absolute domination from last year.
This was the stadium that surprised me the most. Apparently from the inside it's one of the best stadiums in the league, and is consistently the favorite to host the Super Bowl. But from the outside it looks awful! Sorry for the low res picture, but this was the one that best captured that it looks like the zit of New Orleans. F
Especially in a Covid year, the Saints will be right back in the playoffs again. But for everyone picking them to win the Super Bowl, I ask you this: How is this Saints team different than any of the previous three Saints teams who make it to the playoffs only to be devastated in spectacular fashion? No way I'm picking them to be in the Super Bowl.
On that note, is there any team that has had a tougher go of it in the past three years than the Saints? Brings up the age old question of whether it is better to be a fan of a team that perennially has no expectations (Browns) or that has a heart-breaking playoff loss every 12 months. Correct again, but these were the easy ones anyways.
That brings us to 8 teams so far:
Steelers
Ravens
Colts
Chiefs
Cowboys
Buccaneers
Saints
Rams
Looking at that list, I still need teams from the AFC East and NFC North.
As average as a stadium can be. At least it isn't a dome. C
For the AFC East team, and I'll go with the Patriots. I might also include the Bills as a wild card once I get down to it. Even though Tom Brady is gone, I'll always pick the Patriots until it is shown that I should do it otherwise (similar to me never picking the Browns). Things have certainly changed in the NFL, this is going to be hard next year.
Purposefully picked a snow picture to capture the anguished misery and loneliness of the Midwest during winter. Points off for being in an area where there is literally no other reason to smile. D
I also haven't picked a team from the NFC North, for that I'll go with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Even though they weren't as good as 13-3 last year and didn't please everyone with choosing to not draft a wide receiver for Rodgers from the best wide receiver draft ever (supposedly), they still have a solid team and are consistently in the mix. This year they are as good as their 13-3 record. I have more faith for them to make a deep playoff run this time.
That gives me a team from each division now, and five each of returning/new teams. I have three more teams to pick from last year's playoff teams. My options are: Titans, Texans, Bills, 49ers, Seahawks, Eagles, and Vikings. Hard to only pick three from that group, but I'll go with the Seahawks, Texans, and Bills.
Kinda cool looking stadium and with the coast and the skyline is pretty cool. I'll give Seattle as a whole a B
Seahawks are another team that's in it every single year. Nobody last year was picking them and they were a tiebreaker away from being the #1 seed instead of the 49ers. Russell Wilson is one of the top two best QBs in the league and they'll be back in it again. Solidly got this correct, but would have done better if the Seahawks continued to "Let Russ Cook" throughout the season. At the beginning he looked like an MVP candidate but unfortunately didn't keep that going down the stretch.
Would have been a C, but demoted to a D because of proximity to a former baseball stadium.
I view the Texans in a similar way. Would never pick them to win the Super Bowl, but they are always in the mix to make it to the playoffs. Don't forget that Bill O'Brien coached a bunch of teams with no name QBs to the divisional round before they got Deshaun Watson, so I see them back in it again. Yikes, faith in B.O'B. did not turn out correct. Probably my biggest miss of this entire year. He was the first coach out the door.
Now this is how you do snow. This is the happy fluffy type of snow (unlike in the Midwest) that creates beautiful looking football games. B+
Picking the Bills here is a little bit of wish fulfillment, but also because I feel it is a safe pick. They have been the favorites to win the division in the offseason after the departure of Tom Brady from the Patriots, and so I feel comfortable picking them here. I'm glad the Bills are in the mix to be a Super Bowl contender for the first time since the Music City Miracle (one of the first games I remember as a child). Even though they didn't earn my fandom as a child, they certainly have captured my support as my #2 team. Their uniforms are in the top tier, and the authentic chicken wing can compete with any of the other team's regional foods as the best. Buffalo deserves happiness. Yay Bills! With the Broncos out of the playoffs, the Bills are my preferred choice to win the Super Bowl.
Regarding the Titans, Eagles, and Vikings - these were all teams last year that I believe overachieved and so it would make sense for them to be back in the middle of the pack again. On the outside looking in. I just don't see Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry having the same success as last year, the Eagles are already experiencing injuries, and the Vikings aren't inspiring with an aging defense. Titans were able to be even better on offense this year, so I was incorrect there. Won't give myself any credit for the Eagles because their decline was already happening while I wrote this. Spot on with the take on the Vikings.
Regarding the 49ers - this is my pick of a great team that for no predictable reason misses the playoffs. I actually don't feel too bad making this as my "disappointment" pick because their division is pretty hard and they didn't do much before last year. Absolutely nailed it! Really proud of this one because this is the hardest to predict. The "team that disappoints because everyone expected them to be good" is hard to wrap your mind around, but I got it! Hard to think that a team that was in the Super Bowl would miss the playoffs the next year.
That brings us to 13 teams so far:
Steelers
Ravens
Patriots
Bills
Colts
Texans
Chiefs
Packers
Cowboys
Buccaneers
Saints
Panthers
Rams
Seahawks
So for my "random surprise team dart throw" pick, I've got to pick a team from the NFC. A lot of times, these teams come from a brand new head coach that wins coach of the year just because they are new and fresh and turned around a team that wasn't doing well the year before. That makes me look at Joe Judge and the Giants, or Matt Rhule and the Panthers. Ultimately the "random surprise dart throw" went to Washington.
Solid stadium that fits the aesthetic of the city, but ultimately isn't anything too spectacular. B-
I'll go with the Panthers. They were somewhat decent last year without great QB play, so Teddy Bridgewater should be able to keep them in contention.
I was lucky enough to get the #1 pick in my main fantasy football league and took the chalk pick Christian McCaffrey. Although in previous years that would doom him to missing the season due to suspension, injury, or holdout (see 2014 Adrian Peterson, 2017 David Johnson, and 2018 Le'Veon Bell, respectively) I'm hoping that for once, having a top two pick won't be causing disaster for that player. Last year I went WR-WR in the first two rounds and they played most of their games! So yeah, hoping the curse is broken. Sorry CMC, you only ended up playing 3 games in the season. Yikes.
Here is the final list:
Steelers
Ravens
Patriots
Bills
Colts
Texans
Chiefs
Packers
Cowboys
Buccaneers
Saints
Panthers
Rams
Seahawks
For my Super Bowl picks, I'll go with Rams over Ravens.
Let's see what happens!
Absolutely gorgeous. Every Broncos fan needs to make the pilgrimage to Mile High at one point in their life. That trip is on my bucket list. A++
Every year I do predictions for the Broncos as well. Unfortunately we just lost Von Miller, and this will definitely be a growing pains year for Drew Lock and this young offense. I'm going to put us at 8-8, one game better than last year, but again finishing the year with optimism for a (hopefully) non-covid offseason to prep for 2021. With everything I've said about veteran teams having the edge this season, if Drew Lock is the real deal, I think the Broncos are one year away from contending.
My thoughts on every other team not mentioned in this post:
Bengals - Joe Burrow? Cool! Anything else significant about the Bengals other than Joe Burrow this year? I think me mentioning him and only him was spot on.
Dolphins - Good uniforms Didn't suspect that they'd be playoff contenders, but didn't really predict anything regarding them.
Jaguars - Yikes, picking you to make the playoffs two years in a row is the biggest regret from my predictions. Yikes was VERY correct.
Chargers - See the section on the Rams to see me compliment your gorgeous new uniforms. Giving myself full credit for not taking them seriously enough to mention anything other than their absolutely gorgeous uniforms, which held up on the field.
Raiders - Nice new stadium, I guess. Still hate you. One bright spot of this season was seeing the Raiders completely blow their playoff chances in the final stretch.
Bears - It sucks when a 1st round QB doesn't work out, but at least you didn't trade up for him and pick him over two other great QBs, right? Oh... Giving myself partial credit for an incomplete grade right now. As I'm writing this they are in the playoffs, but does anyone think they actually have a chance? Still a joke of a team, which is one reason why I don't really like this expanded playoffs. I have no need to see a team like the Bears anymore on my TV screen.
Lions - Who cares? Hey Mackie! Who cares indeed.
Washington - Yikes all around. Excited for Terry McLaurin on my fantasy team. Calling it now he will be a top 25 fantasy pick next year. Even though the NFC East was a dumpster fire, they really were a bright spot with Alex Smith returning and having some fun players. Don't expect them to win against Tom Brady in the playoffs but definitely a successful year for Washington.
Giants - Briefly mentioned you above but I already love the crazy stuff Joe Judge does. Not going to work, but still, it's hilarious. We'll see what happens going forward with Joe Judge, the Giants looked promising for a few games.
Falcons - Does holding on to the coach who you heavily considered firing ever work out? Or having a running back with arthritic knees? At least you won't have another devastating Super Bowl loss again because there's no way you'll get close to making it back. Spot on with this one, why keep a coach you considered firing? When does that ever work?
Cardinals - Really excited for y'all but that's a tough division. Kyler running is always funny with his short little legs. Was a very exciting and fun to watch team this year.
Thanks for reading, I hope your team does well except for when they are playing mine!
God bless!
