Hey everyone!
We're back! My favorite annual blog post to write that hardly everyone reads! But the few who do are my highest quality friends, so this is a blog post that truly values quality over quantity. So if you're reading this, congratulations on being a top-tier friend.
Also Jeremy here, I originally forgot to post this to social media for anyone to see before the season, so I'll actually be mixing it up this year and posting it midway through. Anything italicized is what I'm writing the evening of 12/1, between weeks 12 and 13 of the season.
Every year, I try to predict which teams will make the playoffs. This is my performance thus far:
It's going to be hard to live up to last year's solid 10 out of 14 correct, but I'll try!
The very first thing I do is look at the teams that made the playoffs last year, and on average, half are returnees, half are new. Here are the teams that made the playoffs from last year:
Chiefs
Bills
Steelers
Titans
Ravens
Browns
Colts
Packers
Saints
Seahawks
Washington
Buccaneers
Rams
Bears
So I'll need to pick only 7 teams that are on the above list to return. Going through that, it is really hard! Here are my picks from most confident to least confident:
Chiefs - I hate it, but hard to ever think that they are going to miss the playoffs, I loved watching them lose in the Super Bowl!
Buccaneers - They ended the season so well last year leading up to that Super Bowl win. Only below the Chiefs on a confidence level because there's at least the chance that old Tom Brady could fall off due to his age.
Packers - Aaron Rodgers is mad. They'll be back in the playoffs despite their running back Aaron Jones receiving the Jeremy-Glidden's-First-Round-RB-Always-Gets-Injured curse. (CMC was the least affected by my curse and he played only 3 games the season I took him).
Rams - Still have an excellent defense, and Sean McVay is about to remind the league that he is one of the premiere offensive minds in coaching when he lights it up with his hand-picked quarterback that he saved from the wasteland that is Detroit.
Titans - I don't think the Titans are the 5th best team in the league, but I think they are in the easiest division and I expect them to be back losing in the wild card/divisional round.
Bills - Probably still one of the bests team in the AFC, but I don't think they have really gotten any better, so sorry Bills fans, their ceiling is losing to the Chiefs in the playoffs again.
I want to put so many teams here! I want to pick Washington because of the rest of the terrible NFC East, the Seahawks because of Russell Wilson, and the Ravens because of their playoff consistency, but I'm going to go with the Cleveland Browns. They showed in the playoffs that they are the second best team in the AFC after the Chiefs, and I expect them to take another step forward under their newer coach and to really compete for a Super Bowl.
That means that I also have to select 7 teams that did NOT make the playoffs last year. It's hard picking most of these teams above the Seahawks, Ravens, and Washington, but that's the inherent difficulty with half of the NFL's playoff contenders being new every year. Again here is what I think, rated most confident to least confident:
49ers - This team got absolutely destroyed by injuries last year, and I think they will be back and competing for a Super Bowl. Picking them to be in the playoffs after last year's disappointing season is probably my most confident pick in the entire list. I'm all in on Trey Lance becoming a star in his rookie year (on both my fantasy teams, expect him to be a league winner by the end of the season).
Dolphins - I'm glad I get to pick the Dolphins here, I was so impressed with them last season, they really only missed the playoffs because they committed to letting Tua learn instead of continuing to ride with Ryan Fitzpatrick. It's pretty obvious that Tua should take the leap forward, right? One of the highest coveted QBs in recent drafts and now fully recovered from his hip injury and no longer a rookie? Am I missing something here?
Cowboys - I hate putting the Cowboys here, but who else from the NFC East if I'm not picking Washington? If I weren't so strict on my "only pick half to return" rule then I'd 100% have Washington in this spot, but because of my own constraints, I'll pick the team who potentially has a top 5 offense in the league with Dak back.
Vikings - With the expanded playoffs, I'm pretty confident the Vikings can compete for one of those wild card spots and then swiftly be eliminated from the playoffs. Their defense was really bad last year so a step forward paired with a solid offense makes me feel pretty comfortable selecting them here.
Chargers - I hate how good Justin Herbert was in his first year. Being a Broncos fan, I'll be extremely demoralized if he continues to be fantastic and we have to go against two great QBs in the division every year. This team has had so many crazy losses over the past few years, so I expect a new coaching regime to help the team be more disciplined and put games away.
It's between the Broncos and the Patriots for this last AFC spot, and I just don't have faith in Pat Shurmur and our QB situation to put up enough points to keep up with the rest of the division. I'll pick the Patriots due to a promising rookie QB, my expectation that they at least split games with the better teams in their division, and faith in Bill Belichick to scheme up a few wins. They were 7-9 with maybe one of the worst rosters in the league last year so it's really just more faith in their coaching staff than the Broncos'.
I kept going back and forth between the Cardinals (cmon Jeremy you were so close!) and the Panthers here because I really don't think either are good enough to make the playoffs. But who else from the remaining non-returnee teams am I going to pick from the NFC - Falcons? Eagles? Lions? (Ha! Sorry Mackie). I'll go with the Panthers because they showed some promising signs last year, and are in what I expect to be an easier division (Falcons rebuilding, and the Saints are the former playoff team I predict to be really bad this year). They have CMC back after I ruined him last year by selecting him in my cursed fantasy football league, and it's not too hard to imagine that another player thrives after escaping Adam Gase.
Final selections:
Bills
Browns
Titans
Chiefs
Dolphins
Patriots
Chargers
Cowboys
Packers
Buccaneers
49ers
Vikings
Panthers
Rams
Going into December, I currently project at 10/14 correct!
Every year, I make a prediction for the Broncos record. I don't expect them to be terrible, but just not good enough to make the playoffs. I'd select them to be right in the middle at 8-8, but with the new 17 game season, I'll go 9-8 rather than 8-9 because I'm more glass half full than half empty because of faith in the roster outside of the most important position.
Feeling spot on about my favorite team 12 weeks in.
For the teams that I didn't predict to make the playoffs, here are my thoughts:
Jets - Not this year, but if they are promising with their new coach and QB, I could see selecting them for the playoffs next year as a fringe wild card team.
Ravens - When I'm wrong at the end of the season, it'll be because the Ravens made the playoffs again. But who out of those returning playoff teams I listed above isn't going to make it? Really feel like I backed myself into a corner with my "only half return" rule. I'll revisit it if it's proven wrong at the end of this season.
Steelers - While I don't think they are going to be as bad as everyone says, they were one of the easier teams to predict to not return to the playoffs. It'll be close though.
Bengals - No positive news whatsoever coming from this team in the preseason. Expect them to be the dumpster fire of the division. (oof, biggest miss in this whole post I think)
Colts - They are solid, but with Carson Wentz either being not great and expected to miss a significant amount of games due to an injury at some point, it was easy to not select them to return to the playoffs.
Jaguars - It was the right move to cut Tim Tebow, but I'll still hold them accountable for doing so. Urban Meyer feels like one of those college coaches that tries to treat adults like children and loses the support of his team.
Texans - Yikes. Is there a preseason power rankings that doesn't have them in 32/32??
Raiders - After having a really bad year, that commitment to Jon Gruden is going to look even worse. (hahahaha wow even I couldn't have predicted how right I was going to be)
Washington - I actually really like this team, but the NFC East has turnover every year so I just couldn't pick them for the playoffs with my "only half return" rule. I'm actually more interested in watching this football team than most.
Giants - It's rare that a team loses optimism over the course of the offseason, but I could see this going downhill fast.
Eagles - Definitely not a hot take expecting them to be bad.
Bears - Having them miss the playoffs is wish fulfillment more than anything. On draft night, after the Panthers passed on Justin Fields, I got out the champagne and the glasses for everyone in attendance for when the Broncos took him. But instead, they went with another defensive player... for my sanity, I NEED Justin Fields to be bad
Lions - Fresh start for the J-Man!! Gonna bite off some kneecaps! Have fun picking early in next year's draft!
Saints - I feel like I'm much lower on the Saints then most. But they are expecting to win with Jameis throwing to undrafted receivers? I don't know, I just don't see it going well even though the coach is great.
Falcons - I was so disappointed that they traded Julio away. Would have been so much fun to watch their offense if they kept him while adding Kyle Pitts. Oh well, just another rebuilding team.
Seahawks - Hard not picking them to make the playoffs, but is the roster anything to celebrate? Hard division, too.
Cardinals - Almost considered them to make the playoffs out of process of elimination, but I think they'll be one of the teams looking for a new coach by the end of the year. Kyler could contend for MVP and the team struggle to get 7 wins.
In general? Pretty spot on with most of these - wouldn't you agree?
Super Bowl Pick
I think the 49ers are going to bounce back this year and make another Super Bowl run, so I'll be picking them from the NFC.
For the AFC? I don't want to just go Chiefs again so I'll go with one of the only teams in the AFC that gave them a good game last year - the Cleveland Browns. Sorry, friends who are Bills fans, I haven't seen them do anything in the offseason to make me think that they won't have a similar outcome in the playoffs vs. Mahomes again. The Browns have a run game that can rack up points and keep Mahomes off the field, and I have more faith in their defense with high draft picks like Pittsburgh-favorite Myles Garrett to get a takeaway or two to win that playoff game.
BUT with all of that said, I'll go with the 49ers with the win in the Super Bowl. First rookie QB to ever win a Super Bowl!
What are your thoughts? How crazy is it that I don't have the Ravens in the playoffs? Did anyone in the AFC actually get better than the Chiefs? We'll find out!
Go Broncos! God bless!
Jeremy