This blog is part of an ongoing series about my "bucket list" while I'm 24 years old. This blog post is about achieving #24. Check out my blog post about all 24 goals here!
Jeremy here, updating this post at the end of the season. I'm going to highlight the correct and incorrect predictions I made. Anything I'm writing now will be italicized and in blue, and I'll change the font color of my predictions to green for correct, red for incorrect, and yellow for partial credit.
Hello everyone!
It is that time of year again, where football returns and distracts me from being sad that summer is over as we enter into the most overrated season of the year. For those who just did a pumpkin spice latte spit-take: yeah, I said it! Fall/Autumn is extremely overrated. Read on for more hot takes.
You all know that I'm a Broncos fan, but I'm even more a fan of the NFL as a whole. Yes, I want the Broncos to win every game and every Super Bowl, but I have almost as much fun watching other good games and the sport as a whole. A season like last year with so many star players getting injured was devastating, and that combined with one of the worst Broncos' seasons in memory made it a season to forget.
I'm so excited for this new season! Here are my top five reasons why:
Denver Broncos Rookie Class - Bradley Chubb, Courtland Sutton, and Royce Freeman all look to be good players. It's been awhile since the Broncos have brought in great talent from the draft, and I'm excited to see if they can live up to the hype from training camp. Giving myself only partial credit here for not including Philip Lindsay, who was easily the breakout rookie of the year for the Broncos. But I was correct to be excited for these rookies - Broncos were considered to have one of the best rookie classes of the year, behind the Browns.
Bradley Chubb - Defensive Rookie of the Year
Stacked NFC - Going into the season, I could realistically see six teams being good enough to win the Super Bowl. I think the Vikings, Packers, Rams, Falcons, Saints, and Eagles have a very realistic shot at winning the Super Bowl. Many of them play each other throughout the season, and I'm excited to watch as many of those games as I can. Spoiler alert: Those six teams are NOT my NFC playoff picks, keep on reading! Partial credit for the Falcons because of the amount of injuries they sustained to their defense. More on this later.
Every team is watchable at QB - So many years there are bad quarterbacks starting for their teams, and it is impossible to imagine those teams doing well at all. This year, every team has a potential solution at quarterback, and while some will certainly turn out to be bad, there is no team that is completely hopeless in regards to that position.
BREAKING NEWS - The Buffalo Bills just announced they are starting Nathan Peterman at QB, change that to "31 teams are watchable at QB" Absolutely nailed this section. Lot of exciting new quarterback prospects entered the league, and my humorous trashing of Nathan Peterman was completely validated by the first week.
Buffalo Bills - #1 draft pick in 2019
Tony Romo - This guy was my MVP for last season. As I've gotten more into fantasy football, I've started to pay attention less to the games as a whole and watch more RedZone and flip back and forth between games to see individual players' stats. Tony Romo completely changed that last season. I'd watch Cleveland vs. Buffalo and still enjoy it because of his commentary. He's fantastic. Tony Romo ended the season announcing the Super Bowl, another hit.
Anyone else think this guy looks like Paul Rudd?
Aaron Rodgers - As a fan of the sport, I appreciate being able to watch the best of the best, even if they don't play on the Broncos. Aaron Rodgers is the most talented quarterback to ever play football, and he was killing it last season before he was injured. Look at the difference between the Packers with and without him last year - he is the single player in the NFL right now that can win the Super Bowl with a bad team. He's that good. And calm down, Patriots fans, I said he was the most talented, not the most successful or "greatest", TB12 is still the G.O.A.T.
No other quarterback can do what Aaron Rodgers can do.
I'm fine with my enthusiasm for Aaron Rodgers here. While the Packers' lack of overall talent was finally too much for even Aaron Rodgers to overcome, he proved that he still has the ability to completely take over a game like no other quarterback can. See the text thread between my brother and I during the first game of the season:
Here are the teams I believe are making the playoffs. My criteria for this is to have at least five teams that didn't make the playoffs last year. The league average is over six new teams per year, and last year, there were only four teams that had back to back playoff appearances. Because of this, I had to pick what I think are the most likely upsets. Kind of like when you fill out your March Madness bracket, and even though you don't think the #13 seed is going to beat the #4, you have to pick them anyways because you haven't picked an upset in awhile.
AFC East - New England Patriots - This one is obvious. Although I think they have a worse team than the past few years, they have the all around best organization, coaching staff, all of it. What Bill Belichick and TB12 do every year is the best the league has seen so far, and remain at the top of the AFC East with a 11-5 record. While picking the Patriots to win the AFC East is by no means a risky prediction, getting the 11-5 record exactly correct is somewhat significant. Patting myself on the back.
The Patriots are too good to be impressed by the AFC championship trophy.
AFC South - Jacksonville Jaguars - They aren't intimidated by anyone and were very close to making the Super Bowl last year. Their defense is as good as the '15 Broncos, and Blake Bortles is better than '15 Peyton Manning. They're finishing as the #1 seed with a 13-3 record. Also, I'm very thankful they got rid of those awful looking helmets. Oof. This one hurts - my desire to root for all-time great defenses got the better of me here. Their defense was no '15 Broncos and they ended with a 5-11 record.
Leonard Fournette - Bringing my fantasy team to victory! Or he'll be injured by week 4.
AFC West - Los Angeles Chargers - It pains me not to pick the Broncos here, but if you look at the past few years of the Chargers, they've easily been the unluckiest team in the league. Whether it's bad kicker play, being forced to leave San Diego against their will, or having as many injuries as my fantasy football team, they haven't caught a break in years. Too many anomalies - I see them making it back to the playoffs with a 11-5 record. One game off, but besides not getting their win total exactly correct, I think my analysis on the Chargers was spot on for their 12-4 year. Barely lost the division to the Chiefs.
My favorite memory of Philip Rivers - delay of game penalty vs. the Broncos.
AFC North - Pittsburgh Steelers - I made this pick during the Steelers-Jags playoff game last season. Even though the Steelers lost, seeing Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le'Veon Bell all play together at peak performance was amazing. Steelers fans have to be disappointed that they haven't gotten to a Super Bowl with all that talent, right? Still not impressed with that defense though, so I think they take a step-back this year and win the division with clutch wins over their division rivals late in the season putting them at 10-6. They ended the year at 9-6-1, I was so close! But I'm counting this one as incorrect because my analysis was ultimately focused on having all Big Ben, Brown, and Bell all play together, and the year ended with both Brown and Bell looking for other teams.
Steelers barely reach into the playoffs as a result of fantastic play from AB.
AFC Wild Card #1 - Houston Texans - Another team ravaged by injuries last year. Similar to my excitement to watch Aaron Rodgers that I highlighted above, seeing J.J. Watt back this season has me excited as well. Such a fantastic player, and if he and Jadeveon Clowney can both stay on the field, it won't matter how much Deshaun Watson regresses in year two. I don't like making this pick because a lot of people are picking the Texans from seeing Deshaun Watson play for a few games last year, so I disagree with the majority of the hype because it is not focusing on the defense which will carry them to a 11-5 record. I got 11-5 and a playoff birth correct for the Texans, but I do have to be fair and mention my incorrect analysis regarding Deshaun Watson. He was good all year until the playoffs, and the defense wasn't carrying the team. Giving them a wild card spot instead of the division title is more to do with my incorrect Jaguars analysis above.
Photo courtesy for Alaina.
AFC Wild Card #2 - Miami Dolphins - I think I'm one of the only people picking the Dolphins here, which is why I hope this one comes true the most (unless if the Broncos pleasantly surprise me and take up this spot). While I realistically see this spot being filled by the Ravens or the *enter Andy Reid team here*, I think the Dolphins will have a realistic shot at making the playoffs. Adam Gase is an incredible offensive mind, and now he can worry about actually drawing plays rather than the disruptive players in the locker room that are now gone. Ryan Tannehill was playing very well two years ago which brought the Dolphins to the playoffs, and other offensive pieces like Danny Amendola and Kenyan Drake are good enough to make this team a playoff contender. Put them in a division where they get to play the Bills twice a year, and it's not too hard for me to see them getting to 10-6 if things go their way. How do you feel about that, Jay Cutler?
"Don't care"
My riskiest pick, and it didn't pan out. Not much to say about this one.
NFC South - New Orleans Saints - The Saints are the best regular season team in a tough division. They were one tackle away from the NFC championship game last year, and they have a strong enough team to not have to rely completely on Drew Brees. But make no mistake, he can still carry a team if he needs to: look at the forgotten second half of that playoff game against Minnesota - he made that premier defense look ordinary. It was all New Orleans in that half except for one play. They'll only get to 11-5 because of a tough division, but it'll be enough to win it. They did even better than I thought at 13-3, and Drew Brees started to show his age down the stretch, but this one was still an easy correct prediction. Anyone have a tougher two years than the Saints? Minnesota Miracle and then the botched P.I. call. Ouch.
Return to Super Bowl for Saints in 2018? Keep on reading to find out.
NFC West - Los Angeles Rams - The most important person on that team? Son of Bum. Wade Phillips is the best coordinator in the league of all 64, and he's got some quality defensive pieces to work with. Add in Sean McVay - a young and exciting offensive-minded head coach that other teams will be trying to imitate for years (see: Bears, Titans), and you've got the makings of a great team top to bottom. I have them as the #1 seed in the NFC and the best record in the NFL at 14-2. One game off, they finished 13-3, but I accurately predicted their regular season dominance and coaching strength. My analysis on Wade Phillips wasn't difficult but still completely correct, and add the Browns, Bengals, Packers, and Cardinals as other teams trying to imitate the young prodigy offensive-minded type head coach.
The Rams have announced that they're wearing their beautiful yellow/blue unis for five home games - they will continue that smart decision making throughout the season. Even wore them for the Super Bowl, I'm definitely in sync with them regarding the uniforms.
NFC North - Green Bay Packers - With a QB that is pissed about missing most of a season while in his prime, the Packers are going to be back on top of the NFC North after their defense takes a step forward and the Minnesota Vikings take a few steps back. I stated the case for Aaron Rodgers above, and he'll win the MVP while taking the Packers back to #1 in the north with a 12-4 record. Ended the season 6-9-1 and fired their head coach. Not too much to say here.
Absolutely ridiculous how good that guy is.
NFC East - New York Giants - As I stated above, I've got to pick an upset so I have enough new teams making it to the playoffs in a stacked NFC. I have a hard time believing the Giants are better than the Eagles, but I can see it more than I can see the Rams being upset by a team with no defense (49ers), or two of the teams from the NFC South NOT Making the playoffs. With Saquads Barkley (seriously, have you seen those guys quads??) taking the pressure off of Eli to do everything, Eli will be able to sit back and be more of the "game manager" middle of the road QB like Alex Smith. The defense is better than they played last year, mostly because they were always on the field because of turnovers by the offense. Add Odell Beckham Jr. to my list of "their best player was injured for most of the season" along with Aaron Rodgers and J.J. Watt. I think this my biggest out on a limb prediction of this year, especially after they get handed a loss in week one from the Jaguars. Still though, I have them going 10-6. I stated the risk in this prediction, but I should have had the Cowboys in this spot instead of the 5-11 Giants.
Saquon Barkley's Quads - Offensive Rookies of the Year
NFC Wild Card #1 - Minnesota Vikings - While this team is loaded with great players, everything went well from them last year minus one trip to Philadelphia. I think it's going to be very hard returning to 13-3, especially in a division that I think will have four playoff contenders. Their defense is still good enough to make them a popular Super Bowl pick, but I only see them going 10-6 this year. Giving myself partial credit for predicting their decline while everyone else was seeing them as a Super Bowl contender (see this article about their week 3 game with the Bills that puts into context what people were thinking about this team at the beginning of the season.) But I still had them as a playoff team so this will be counted as incorrect in the final count.
NFC Wild Card #2 - Atlanta Falcons - People forget how close they were to beating the Eagles in the playoffs after handily shutting down the Rams. It's always hard to be the "guy who comes after the guy", and their offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian had to be "the guy" who came after Kyle Shanahan. While their offense seemed to disappoint, it was still fine, and another year with the new system will see more success in the red zone with Julio Jones still being the most physically impressive wide receiver in the league. On top of that, their defense is filled full of fast athletic play-makers which will give them the foundation to do well in the playoffs. Being in the NFC South, I only have them getting to a 10-6 record, but they are my pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. I've got about 3 to 28 other reasons why I think they can make it, but I'll save that for another time. Their defense was absolutely ravaged by injuries, but a wrong pick is a wrong pick. Their lack of depth on defense and resulting bad season is what will most likely prevent me from picking the Texans in my 2019 predictions.
I saved the Julio Jones gif for last, because they are my winner pick for Super Bowl 53! Falcons over Jaguars. While the Jaguars defense is fantastic, Julio Jones shows why he's one of the best receivers of the year in the Super Bowl, and the Falcons defense itself does enough to stuff the Jaguars' run game and close it out with a late game interception of Blake Bortles. Everyone but the Eagles thought a team would play the Super Bowl in their own stadium last year, but everyone was guessing it a year too early. This was a monumentally bad prediction, and while I don't feel that bad about picking the Falcons to succeed, the Jags pick is easily my biggest miss of this entire blog.
Other miscellaneous predictions:
MVP - Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
OPOY - Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
DPOY - Khalil Mack, Oakland Raide-I mean Chicago Bears
OROY - Saquon Barkley and his quads, New York Giants
DROY - Bradley Chubb, Denver Broncos
Worst team in AFC - Bills, Buffalo
Worst team in NFC - Buccaneers, Tampa Bay
Comeback Player of the Year - J.J. Watt, Houston Texans
Coach of the Year - Adam Gase, Miami Dolphins
Assistant Coach of the Year - Wade Phillips, Los Angeles Rams
Best NFL related podcast - Around the NFL
Most Hated Man in Oakland - Jon Gruden
Biggest Dumpster Fire - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (take a look at their opening schedule without Jameis Winston - Saints, Eagles, Steelers - oof)
Least Subtle Job Steal - Todd Haley, Coach of the Cleveland Browns
Team with Most Mentions during Gathering Church Sermons - Cincinnati Browns
College Team that would be Destroyed by any NFL Team - Clemson Tiggers
Most Talked about Politically Controversial Moment - Some Touchdown Celebration
Nike's Most Valuable Body Part - Colin Kaepernick's Knee
Most Injuries - My Fantasy Football Team
Most Improbable Championship Win - My Fantasy Football Team
Best Idea the NFL Should Implement - #TBT Jerseys for Thursday night games
What I miss most in the NFL - Jim Harbaugh freaking out on the sideline
Bandwagon team that everyone roots for - Houston Texans
Denver Broncos regular season record - 9-7. While I don't have the Broncos getting to the playoffs, they again avoid having two consecutive losing seasons - something that they haven't done since 1971-1972. Rookies perform great, offense takes a step forward with consistent but unspectacular play from Case Keenum which allows the defense to rest and get a break unlike last year. Defensive rookie of the year Bradley Chubb demands enough attention to allow Von Miller to compete for defensive player of the year, and the Broncos are fun to watch again. I'm probably going to have a similar prediction for this year.
Philadelphia Eagles - I wanted to use the space above to actually talk about what I like about the Giants, but picking the Giants has as much to do with a step down by the Eagles. Carson Wentz was so good last year, that I expect a regression to the mean. They lost one of their most important personnel in Frank Reich, now the head coach of the Colts, and teams legitimately play harder against the defending Super Bowl champs. With all of this said, it's hard to imagine the Eagles are going to miss the playoffs, but I also don't think that 8 out of last years 12 playoff teams will make it back. It just doesn't happen in the NFL, and this was the one spot where I had to make a tough call. There are so many good teams in the NFC, I had to pick one, and it's easier to pick them right now with some key players injured. Also, did you know that no team has repeated as NFC East division winner since 2004? Analysis was pretty spot on but they still made the playoffs.
Other teams I like that other people aren't talking about - Detroit Lions, New York Jets.
And that's all I've got! If you can't tell, I'm all in on football this year. I think this season has the potential to be one of the best yet! Send me a message letting me know you've read this far, and I hope we'll get to watch a game together sometime this year!
God bless!
Okay so overall this was a pretty bad set of predictions, with only 5 of 12 playoff teams correct and a horrid Super Bowl selection. Stay tuned for my upcoming blog for the 2019 season!
@Alaina @Ethan @David A.
