Hey this is Jeremy from August, 2023 - I always look back on these and see how well I did, my after-the-season thoughts are in orange.
No better thumbnail photo - I'm getting so much entertainment out of this guy already haha Oof, what a year with Russell Wilson. I do very much enjoy his cringe entertainment and resulting jokes off the field, but on the field it was pretty rough.
Okay so this one is going to be a lot shorter than it usually is every year because I'm way more busy now and almost completely forgot about writing it this year! Posting this exactly how my thought process went throughout thinking about this with no edits.
Every year, I try to predict which teams will make the playoffs. This is my performance thus far:
Essentially my process of picking playoff teams is by keeping half of who made it to the playoffs last year, and then picking a new 7 teams due to on average half of the teams returning to the playoffs every year. Worth mentioning that the change from 2021 to 2022 was indeed 7 new teams, so I'll stick with this method as I always shoot to go 14 of 14. To do this, I'll quickly look at who made it this past year and identify which are the easiest 7 to predict a return, and then pick a new 7 from the remaining 18 teams that didn't make it to the playoffs last year. I'll go top to bottom by seed starting with the AFC:
Titans - Has there ever been a worse #1 seed? Easy exclusion especially with the expected surge from the rest of the AFC South. Two teams from the worst division in football certainly aren't going to make it to the playoffs and I'd go Colts or Jags over Titans for sure. Giving myself a big pat on the back for this one. It's hard to pick against the #1 seed but I nailed it.
Chiefs - Easy inclusion back to the playoffs despite a tough division. They have the longest consecutive division title streak in the league so I won't pick against them until that streak ends. I might as well just copy/paste this for 2023.
Bills - Probably the odds on favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl? But a lot of people are picking them due to the fact that people like to pick a new team, and the Bills are the only team who didn't look bad when their season ended. I'll still pick them to make the playoffs but think that in general people should chill on them a bit. Losing your awesome OC isn't going to result in smooth sailing the entire way. Don't hate my takes here, in regards to "making the playoffs" I was spot on.
Bengals - Opposite to the Bills, I don't think people are giving the Bengals enough respect. I think they should be considered an easy inclusion to the playoffs and certainly a Super Bowl contender and I hardly hear anyone picking them. Really happy for myself making this very specific takes, so many people saw the Bengals as a Cinderella team making it to the Super Bowl and weren't considering them as an AFC favorite preseason for some reason. Glad I stuck to that and in general feel like I nailed the vibe of these three powerhouse teams from the AFC.
Raiders - Easy exclusion coming from a Broncos fan who has experienced Josh McDaniels as head coach. Especially with a brutal division. Eyyyyy, it is too easy to correctly predict the Raiders being trash in my lifetime.
Patriots - It's hard to kick Belichick out but they looked so bad in the playoffs and there is way too much responsibility given to Joe Judge and Matt Patricia. Wow 2022 Jeremy is on fire! For those that don't remember, the whole Pats' season was clouded by coaching philosophy controversies.
Steelers - Easier exclusion for me, they barely made it last year and I expect the Bengals to remain strong and the Ravens to surge. Even though I got this one right, the thinking behind it wasn't 100% correct. They were much better than I thought they would be.
Packers - Regardless of their playoff woes they are in a terrible division so I'll still give Aaron Rodgers and Matt LeFleur the edge over anyone else in the NFC North. This one was so close! But good on the Lions and Vikings for improving in 2022.
Buccaneers - I'm 50/50 on the Bucs and so I actually started writing the rest out before deciding on them. Every year there is a team that unpredictably tanks and I guess I'm going with the Bucs for that. Weird picking against Brady but he's also 45 with a worse O-line so is it too much of a stretch to think he could get injured and/or Todd Bowles as a head coach doesn't work out, again? Glad I ended up picking them, but having a lot of doubt was certainly correct.
Cowboys - Sure, they have a defense, but they also have Mike McCarthy and miss the playoffs every other year. Taking them out for this year. Even though they proved me wrong, I'm pretty much going to copy/paste this blurb for why I won't be picking them in 2023 ha.
Rams - Easy inclusion. I think they could even be better this year even though they lost Von Miller. Alright! It took awhile, but we finally found where I completely whiffed. Absolutely missed their demise after the Super Bowl win. Oh well.
Cardinals - Easy exclusion especially with Hopkins suspended and how bad they ended last year. Nailed it, looked like one of the worst teams in the league.
49ers - I think this is one of the better teams in the NFC and regardless of who is at QB, Kyle Shanahan will be able to make it work. Should I copy/paste this for 2023??
Eagles - I took the Cowboys out, and I'm certainly not going to pick the G-Men or the Commies to win the NFC East. Auto-include. Hahaha pretty funny my reasoning but unfortunately even though I got the prediction right, I completely missed them becoming an absolute powerhouse.
That gives me my 7 returning: Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, Packers, Rams, 49ers, Eagles. I'll work my way alphabetically through the conferences to find my other 7. Starting with four more from the AFC:
Ravens - They were decimated by injuries last year and are one of my Super Bowl favorites this year. 1 of 4. Unfortunately they didn't put themselves in that AFC top tier with the Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills like I expected, but I get the point nonetheless.
Browns - Any Browns fans looking for another team wearing orange to root for while your organization sticks to the worst football decision of all time? The Broncos are a good organization to root for feel free to join me. Surprised by how much I can just copy/paste for 2023, invitation is still open to fans of the team that gave the most guaranteed money of all time to a creep who hasn't once showed any remorse (still true a year later).
Broncos - Not sure, let me work through the rest of the AFC and come back to them so I'm not biased with my fandom.
Texans - When they start getting some talent I'll start picking them. Not much to say here, everyone was expecting this so I can't give myself too much credit.
Colts - I have to pick a team to win the AFC South, why not the Colts? 2 of 4. There is always one team that people love in the preseason that disappoints. In 2022 it was the Colts.
Jaguars - It's hard for me to believe that Trevor Lawrence could be bad after everyone was collectively predicting him to be a huge success in the NFL. If the AFC weren't so stacked I'd pick them as a wildcard team. But improvement and being in playoff contention towards the end of the season is a good enough step forwards. Hurts to have not picked them over the Colts.
Chargers - Hard not to pick them with Justin Herbert looking so good and the roster looking stacked. I'll go with them as number 3 of 4. Might do the same for 2023.
Jets - A good step forward for the Jets this year would be on the fringe of playoff contention. Add in the fact that they are starting the season with an old Joe Flacco and that's enough for me to remove them from contention. I'm astounded at how many of these I got right on the nose. I think I'm getting better at this.
...and that's the rest of the AFC so I guess I'll put in the Broncos as the final AFC team! Let's ride! So now I'm just realizing that I completely forgot about the Dolphins hahaha, sorry David! Thinking of where I was mentally in the preseason, I still probably would have taken the Broncos (I always will when I consider it a coin flip, and I basically was just a big shrug regarding the Dolphins preseason).
Now for three more from the NFC:
Falcons - They seem to be in the middle of a rebuild, I'll look elsewhere. Nailed it
Panthers - One of the things I've learned by doing this every year: never pick the team that has the coach that is the favorite to be fired at the end of the season. Nailed it x2
Bears - They seem to also be tearing it all down around Justin Fields, who I need to be bad for my own sanity. Nailed it x3
Lions - If it takes an HBO series for people to feel moderately positive about your team, that's not a good sign. Got the point, but the Lions ended up impressing everyone and almost making the playoffs, so I can't give myself "nailed it" credit.
Vikings - I'll pick the Vikings to make it! They had so many close losses last year which is often indicative of poor leadership. New coaching staff, terrible division, why not the Vikings as a wild card? 1 of 3. The logic was sound, and all those close losses turned into close wins. I'll probably use the same "statistical return to the mean" argument to pick them to miss the playoffs in 2023.
Saints - Oh wow I guess by process of elimination I'm picking the Saints to win the NFC South. I don't like the loss of Sean Payton but if I'm picking the Bucs to regress I guess I'll go with the team that has a good roster. 2 of 3. I'm not hating my logic here, this was more of a "process of elimination" pick.
Giants - I have a good friend named Chris Brown and he is the most positive thing about the Giants. Good for you, G-Men! Chris fell asleep during your playoff games.
Seahawks - Have fun being a team that prioritizes a coach over a franchise QB. I'll take the huge L here - add to it the fact that the guy that the Broncos drafted with the other pick we received in the trade just got suspended (and I think is about to be arrested?) for gambling on NFL games.
Commanders - Wentz wasn't good enough to bring a solid Colts team to the playoffs, and this roster is definitely worse than the 21' Colts. Nailed it, again.
Oh wow are we really at the end of the NFC? Dang that is a terrible conference. I feel better about throwing Brady back in the mix and going against my system for once than picking any of those other NFC teams. So I'll go Bucs win the NFC south and the Saints are a wildcard team. Yeah I feel better about that. Lesson learned - even though I picked the wrong "new" team in the Saints instead of the Seahawks/Giants, I should listen to my own data and stick to this system.
Okay here we go, official prediction for the 14 teams in the playoffs this year, listed by division alphabetically and division winner first:
AFC East - Bills 1
AFC North - Ravens, Bengals 2, 3
AFC South - Colts Ouch
AFC West - Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos 4, 5
NFC East - Eagles 6
NFC North - Packers, Vikings 7
NFC South - Buccaneers, Saints 8
NFC West - 49ers, Rams 9
Broncos Prediction - I'll go 11-6 for the Broncos which is enough to get that last AFC playoff spot. Let's ride 😏 Ooooooof. But hey, the whole "let's ride" slogan is still just as cringey funny as it was a year ago, and I will continue to get way too much enjoyment out of saying it.
Super Bowl Prediction - I know I told people to temper their expectations above, and I certainly think Bills fans should worry more than they are, but I'll go with Bills over 49ers. But unlike the easy road to the Super Bowl "like they should have had last year but they lost a coin flip!" that people are predicting, I think it will be earned through overcoming growing pains with a new OC and finding their groove more towards the end of the year rather than being the prohibitive favorite throughout the season. But after defeating the #1 seed Ravens in the AFC Championship game, they will follow it up two weeks later with the teams first Super Bowl win and a win for all of Western New York! I'm not too mad with my pick and my logic here. It was hedging my bet but at least I captured the vibe of the Bills' season.
It'll make me very happy just like when my Broncos won the Super Bowl! Not as happy, but close.
God bless!
Jeremy